CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 03/11 - 06Z THU 04/11 2004
ISSUED: 02/11 22:01Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms forecast across southern Italy

General thunderstorms are forecast across southeastern France, the southern Alps, Italy, wetsern Greece and the southwestern Balkans and northwestern Iberia and in northern Scotland.

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday at 06Z... a rigde is located over Polands and the southern Baltic Sea. A trough over the western North Sea and the Low Countries is forecast to move eastward. A low pressure center over Tunisia is expected to move eastward. A small low pressure to the northwest of Iberia is expected over north-central Spain on Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

...southern Italy...
Thunderstorm clusters are expected to continue along a north-south oriented frontal zone over southern Italy where 1000-1500 J/kg 50-hPa-MLCAPE should be available. As only moderate shear is present, main threats with these storms will be strong to severe winds and large hail.

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